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原文传递 Modelling Demand for Long-Distance Travel in Great Britain

题名：	Modelling Demand for Long-Distance Travel in Great Britain
责任者：	by Peter Burge, Chong Woo Kim, Charlene Rohr
关键词：	Railway Transportation, Surface Traffic Models, Transportation Modeling, United Kingdom
学科分类：	交通运输规划与管理
摘要：	The UK Department for Transport has developed a model to predict passenger demand for long-distance travel that will be used to examine a number of policy interventions, including demand for high-speed rail. As part of the model development, a stated preference study was undertaken to examine the propensity of those making long distance trips to switch to high-speed rail and to provide key parameter values for modelling demand for high-speed rail services. Surveys were undertaken with over 3,000 travellers making long-distance trips, that is trips in excess of 50 miles by air, car, or existing rail services, within a realistic catchment area for a hypothetical north-south high-speed rail service. As a result, this study provides an incredibly rich dataset for the analysis of long-distance mode choice decisions under a broad range of scenarios, and allows the identification of cases where a new high-speed rail service may (or may not) act as an attractive substitute. The stated preference choice experiments examined choices between car, air, rail and high-speed rail. In addition to usual service characteristics, the choice experiments also examined the importance of service reliability and crowding to better isolate these aspects of a high-speed rail service which in previous studies may have been confounded in the mode-specific constants. This report provides new empirical evidence about the factors influencing demand for high-speed rail in the UK and the forecasts developed from these models will inform the debate around the future of high-speed rail in the UK.
出版机构：	RAND
报告类型：	咨询报告
资源类型：	科技（咨询、行业）报告
初始创建时间：	2011