摘要: |
After the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, industries in North America and Europe started rethinking global supply chains. Both events showed that a strong reliance on a single supplier may have severe consequences when supply chains are interrupted. The US government and the European Commission together with member state governments have introduced programmes to increase local production of critical commodities such as medical products and microchips. In this environment, world trade growth is slowing down considerably after the rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic. The OECD forecast, for example, projects a seaborne trade growth of only 2.9% in 2023 (see Table 1.6 OECD Summary of the projections on page 35 and Table 3.1 World merchandise trade by region and selected countries on page 18). Not surprisingly, ports in North Europe (which includes the Russian Baltic Sea ports) faced the sharpest decline in 2022 as traffic between Russia and EU ports collapsed. Other regions with traffic losses included Africa, the North American Pacific Coast, the Indian Subcontinent and South Europe. The North American Atlantic Coast ports stood out as the only port range with a clear growth trend. In 2023, data from ISL's Monthly Container Port Monitor for January to April 2023 point towards a continuing strong downward trend in North America and Europe (see section Downward trend in most port ranges below). |