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原文传递 Economics of Road Safety: An International Perspective.

题名：	Economics of Road Safety: An International Perspective.
作者：	mcmanus, w.
关键词：	road safety,economic development,international/developing countries, fatalities, economic analysis, traffic control, costs, benefits, accident reduction, trends, china, india, simulation/kuznets curve
摘要：	This report examines some recent explanations for the rising road fatality rates in developing countries. A key insight of these recent studies is that road fatalities per capita follow a Kuznets curve (an inverted-U shaped pattern with rising income per capita). The rising fatalities per capita in developing countries can be expected to reach a peak and then fall. However, if present trends continue, the already high fatality rates in developing countries could rise for several years before peaking. The report adopts the road fatalities Kuznets curve as a framework, and decomposes the per capita fatality rate into two terms that are multiplied together: vehicles per capita and fatalities per vehicle. Reducing either term, holding the other fixed, would lower fatalities per capita. Reducing motorization (vehicles per capita) is unlikely to be used as a policy to reduce fatalities because it is inextricably linked to economic growth. Consequently, the focus should be on reducing fatalities per vehicle. The report concludes with an economic analysis of the costs and benefits of using new vehicle technologies to reduce fatalities per vehicle in developing countries. To illustrate potential benefits, the report estimates the number of lives that could be saved in China and India as functions of the rate of improvement in fatalities per vehicle. / Availability Note: Product reproduced from digital image. Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA, 22161, USA.
报告类型：	科技报告