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Results of an Exploratory Study to Develop a Model for Route Availability in en Route Airspace as a Function of Actual Weather Coverage and Type.
| 题名： | Results of an Exploratory Study to Develop a Model for Route Availability in en Route Airspace as a Function of Actual Weather Coverage and Type. |
| 作者： | DELAURA, R. A.; EVANS, J. E.; MARTIN, B. D. |
| 关键词： | AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL |
| 摘要： | The objective of this exploratory study is to develop a model that relates convective weather (Wx) to a surrogate for capacity in en route airspace-ATC sector route blockage (RB). This Wx-RB model can then be coupled with forecast meteorological validation models to provide a model that translates probabilistic Wx forecasts into forecasts of fractional RB. Modeling route blockage is accomplished by statistically relating RB to Wx parameters in the form of fractional coverage of intensity, thunderstorm type, thunderstorm vertical structure, and parameters associated with Wx fractional coverage. Practical pattern classification (PPC) techniques have been investigated as candidates for modeling RB as a function of Wx parameters. PPC techniques also provide an estimate of the relative importance of Wx parameters in determining RB. Results show that modeling of RB based on 2002-03 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Wx data has been accomplished reasonably well for low and high RB events (RB less than or equal to 20%, RB greater than or equal to 80%respectively). The statistical classification models for Wx events associated with mid-range RB (20%less than or equal to RB less than or equal to 80%) require a much larger Wx data sample to be considered accurate representations of the full ensemble of Wx that can impact an ATC en route sector. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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