摘要: |
The FAA continues to forecast long term aviation growth, despite global economic conditions. Since 2000, U.S. airlines have dealt with the impacts of 9/11, heightened concerns about pandemics, the bankruptcy of four network carriers, record high fuel prices, and the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression. In spite of these challenges, the number of passengers traveling continues to grow over the long term, demonstrating the value of air transportation to the public. In last years forecast the FAA predicted for the U.S. commercial aviation industry to carry one billion passengers by 2016. We now believe the industry will reach this mark in 2021. The 2009 forecast for commercial aviation calls for a sharp decline in activity in the near term, with a return to growth over the long term. The level of activity and demand in the long term, however, is not expected to snap back to levels published in the previous FAA forecast. The most significant factor preventing recovery to prior forecast levels is the state of the economy, both domestic and worldwide. In the U.S., the National Bureau of Economic Research reports the U.S. economy has been in recession since December 2007, with economists speculating this may be the deepest recession since the end of World War II. Indications are the global economy is not fairing any better. With 8 of the worlds top 10 economies1 in recession as of January 2009, the global economy is poised to perform worse than any other period during the past 60 years. |