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California's 2050 Travel Demand: Anticipating an Era of Climate Change and Energy Constraints.
| 题名： | California's 2050 Travel Demand: Anticipating an Era of Climate Change and Energy Constraints. |
| 作者： | R. Wilson; |
| 关键词： | travel demand,california/climate change, energy supply, mitigation, transportation planning, population, greenhouse effect, gases, economic development, forecasting/climate change, energy supply, mitigation, transportation planning, population, greenhouse effect, gases, economic development, forecasting |
| 摘要： | This report is based on a literature review that describes issues in climate change mitigation and energy supply, current initiatives at the state level, and current practice in addressing these issues in regional transportation plans. It then summarizes the 2050 prognosis for Californias population, economy, and greenhouse gas mitigation and energy issues. Conceptual models are developed concerning the impact of greenhouse gas and energy issues on personal travel demand and goods movement. Drawing the literature, an alternative scenario for 2050 is discussed. The overall finding is that business as usual forecasts may overestimate future demand for personal travel and goods movement. The report concludes with an overview of issues in long-term forecasts, and develops the concept of robustness and adaptability to guide long-term transportation planning. A variety of long-forecasting tools are available. Their effect is not so much as to correctly predict 2050 conditions, but assist in the assessment of near-term actions that make sense in terms of a wide variety of 2050 scenarios. / Supplementary Notes: Sponsored by California State Univ., San Bernardino. Transportation Center. and Department of Transportation, Washington, DC. University Transportation Centers Program. / Availability Note: Product reproduced from digital image. Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5301 Shawnee Road, Alexandria, VA, 22312, USA. / NTIS Prices: PC A04/MF A04 / Corporate Author Code: 058665003 / Classifivation: Unclassified report |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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