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Interim Update to the 2035 Socioeconomic and Travel Demand Forecasts for Virginia.
| 题名： | Interim Update to the 2035 Socioeconomic and Travel Demand Forecasts for Virginia. |
| 作者： | J. S. Miller; |
| 关键词： | socioeconomic forecasting, long-range planning, socioeconomic development, population forecasting, projections |
| 摘要： | In support of the update to Virginias 2035 Statewide Multimodal Plan, this report provides an update to select socioeconomic forecasts initially made in 2009 based on a review of data from national sources and the literature. Mobility needs exist for diverse Virginia subpopulations, such as persons without access to a vehicle (6.3% of statewide households or 8.8% of the states workforce); non-drivers (a group whose composition is changing, with recent decreases in the percentage of Virginians age 15-24 with a drivers license contrasted with increases in the percentage of females age 65 or older (65+) with a drivers license); persons age 65+ (e.g., in 2010, the number of Virginians age 65+ outnumbered those age 19 or younger in only 1 of Virginias 21 regions; by 2035, this will be the case in 8 of Virginias 21 regions); and persons protected by environmental justice regulations (e.g., the income of 17.3% of Virginians was below 150% of the poverty level for 2006-2010, and the minority population was 35.2% of Virginias population in 2010). Subpopulations may also be defined by geography. Although a projected increase in fuel prices between 2010 and 2035 of 48% for autos and 50% for trucks is expected to reduce highway travel more than would be the case without a price increase, the increase in population that is expected based on 2010-2035 levels may offset this decrease; with a variety of assumptions including elasticity of demand, an expected congestion cost in urban areas approaches $5.7 billion based on delay and costs associated with excess fuel consumption. In non-urbanized areas, a rough order of magnitude estimate of the cost of delays, derived in this report, is $285 million at present. Geographical differences are apparent; notably, the largest group of workers by income using public transportation in the Northern Virginia region and, just to its south, the George Washington Regional Commission comprised those with an income of $75,000 or more; by contrast, |
| 总页数： | 83p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
相关文献
- Improving Socioeconomic Forecasting for Medium-Sized Metropolitan Planning Organizations in Virginia.
- Socioeconomic and Travel Demand Forecasts for Virginia and Potential Policy Responses: A Report for VTrans2035: Virginias Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan.
- Study of Alternative Land Use Forecasting Models.
- California Department of Transportation 2000-2001 California Statewide Household Travel Survey Final Report (June 2002).
- Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies. Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Research Report 194.
- Expected Changes in Transportation Demand in Virginia by 2025.
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