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原文传递 Deployment of a Tool for Measuring Freeway Safety Performance. Final Report June 1, 2008-December 31, 2011.

题名：	Deployment of a Tool for Measuring Freeway Safety Performance. Final Report June 1, 2008-December 31, 2011.
作者：	Marca, J.; Recker, W.
关键词：	Accident Analysis; Accident Characteristics; Data; Loop Detectors; Roadways; Traffic Flow Models; Traffic Safety; Traffic Trends
摘要：	This project updated and deployed a freeway safety performance measurement tool. Freeway safety performance is measured by estimating the cumulative risk of different accident characteristics. The project built upon a previous research project that developed the core methodology. The tool evaluates the cumulative risk over time of an accident or a particular kind of accident. The probability is estimated using a model that takes as input only variables that are derived from common inductive loop detectors. The estimated models predict increased risk of any accident occurring, as well as a number of characteristics of those accidents. The work done in this project included re-estimating the original models using 2007 accident and loop detector data; expanding the input period to use a full year of data; storing raw, intermediate, and final model output in a scalable, web-accessible database; and programming a web-accessible interface to the data. By using this safety performance measurement tool, Caltrans will be able to evaluate the safety impacts of roadway changes over time. Specifically, it is anticipated that new deployments of intelligent transportation systems elements can be evaluated for their safety impacts by comparing the net risk of different kinds of accidents before and after deployment. This tool could also be used in near real time, but only to offer insight into current traffic trends; the probability of an accident at any given time and place is too miniscule to be actionable. The models indicate when accident propensity inches up or down, and why. The model predictions are best used to evaluate the cumulative probability of accidents and accident characteristics over longer time horizons and extended stretches of roadway.
报告类型：	科技报告