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Estimating the Probability of Operationally Critical Wind Speeds Affecting An Air Base during the Passage of a Tropical Cyclone. Technical rept.
| 题名： | Estimating the Probability of Operationally Critical Wind Speeds Affecting An Air Base during the Passage of a Tropical Cyclone. Technical rept. |
| 作者： | H. S., Appleman |
| 关键词： | Air Force Operations; Airports; Climatic Factors; Interference; Operation; Probability; Statistical Analysis; Tropical Cyclones; Velocity; Weather Forecasting; Wind |
| 摘要： | A forecast of a tropical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base requires certain decisions to be made, such as whether to tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, remove missiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to balance the cost of protection against the damage incurred by an unprotected base, the commander must know the probability of his installation being struck by above-critical wind speeds during the passage of the storm. In June 1958, Air Weather Service published a technical report (AD 218 559) which outlined a method for computing the total probability of above-critical wind speeds affecting an airbase at some time during the passage of a hurricane or typhoon. A technique was developed for obtaining the instantaneous probability of strong winds affecting a base at each hour during the storm's passage, and a somewhat different approach was used to obtain the hour-by-hour instantaneous probability. Since an estimate of both the total and hourly probabilities of a base being affected by above critical winds would be of value to the various activities on the base, some features from each of the three previous studies, plus certain new techniques were used to provide a more consistent solution to the entire problem. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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