摘要: |
Big container liners, such as Maersk, Hapag Lloyd, and CMA CGM, again reported favorable earnings in their first-quarter reports, and bet on a strong second quarter. The latter so much that at the end of June, the French finance minister asked the France-headquartered carrier to give back to the French people amid the cost of living crisis. At the same time, key analysts are pointing to a softening of rates, with some even predicting a growth slowdown as early as year-end. Currently, S&P Global Market Intelligence Freight Rate Forecast assumes container freight rates will face correction and decline by 20-30% to average about $6,000-7,000 per box (FEU) in the second half of 2022 from an average of about $9,000-10,000 FEU over the same period last year. The softening of container trade growth in response to high inflation rates, endemic consumer pattern, and supply-side pressure with heavy investment in newbuild-ings, as well as reduced congestion with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions will be major downside risks in the second half of the year, specifically after the third-quarter peak season is over. |