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Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis.
| 题名： | Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. |
| 作者： | Ghrist, R. W.; Plakalovic, D. |
| 关键词： | Air Traffic Control; Collision Avoidance; Collisions; Covariance; Error Analysis; Errors; Monte Carlo Method; Normal Density Functions; Probability Theory; Risk Assessment |
| 摘要： | An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc > or = 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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