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Simultaneous Simulation of Urban Shrinkage and Expansion Using Cellular Automaton and Maximum Information Entropy Models: Case Study of Urban Evolution in Wuhan Metropolitan Area
| 题名： | Simultaneous Simulation of Urban Shrinkage and Expansion Using Cellular Automaton and Maximum Information Entropy Models: Case Study of Urban Evolution in Wuhan Metropolitan Area |
| 正文语种： | eng |
| 作者： | Qingsong He;Bo Wang;Yanchuan Mou;Ronghui Tan;Linzi Zheng |
| 作者单位： | College of Public Administration Huazhong Univ. of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 China;College of Public Administration Huazhong Univ. of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area Chongqing Univ. Chongqing 400030 China;College of Public Administration Huazhong Univ. of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 China;College of Public Administration Huazhong Univ. of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 China |
| 关键词： | MaxEnt; CA; Shrinkage; Diffusion-coalescence; Wuhan agglomeration; MSSES |
| 摘要： | During the past two decades discussions on urban shrinkage have been increasing in intensity, mainly due to the irresistible trends of migration, economic transformation, and the so-called "siphon effect" of large and mega cities. Yet, very few studies have tried to understand urban shrinkage from the perspective of local microscopic unit evolution. This study develops a novel model for simultaneous simulation of expansion and shrinkage (MSSES) of urban built-up areas. Starting from a microscopic basis, our MSSES can simulate both the processes and the states that lead to spatial expansion or shrinkage. A MaxEnt model is further used to investigate the driving factors of micro-spatial changes and compute the probabilities of shrinkage (or expansion) of urban built-up areas. Finally, it simulates the explicit layout of the spatial distribution of shrinkage (or expansion) patches with the help of a sorting cellular automata (CA) model. The validity of MSSES is verified using multisourced data from the Wuhan agglomeration, China. We show that (1) MSSES can more accurately simulate urban expansion or shrinkage than the currently widely used neighborhood-based Logistic-CA (NL-CA) and (2) MSSES has advantage in solving the commonly seen problem of "diffusion-coalescence," especially for the simulation of outlying expansion. Against the context of the Wuhan metropolitan area, we also found that overall the shrinkage trend is slowing down significantly, presenting three types of shrinkage at city-scale: remote shrinkage, peripheral shrinkage, and international shrinkage. Our study has contributions to the body of knowledge as well as practical implications for urban management and improving the sustainable development of urban areas in both China and abroad. |
| 出版年： | 2023 |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Urban Planning and Development |
| 卷： | 149 |
| 期： | 4 |
| 页码： | 05023034.1-05023034.12 |
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