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原文传递 Validation and Improvement of Reliability Methods for Air Force Building Systems.

题名：	Validation and Improvement of Reliability Methods for Air Force Building Systems.
作者：	Deering, P. R.
关键词：	Reliability, Civil engineering, Construction, Stochastic processes, Infrastructure, Air force, Air force facilities, Accuracy, Probabilistic models, Fuzzy logic, Fault tree analysis, Ratios, Building systems, Asset management, Contingency analysis, Nhp (nonhomogeneous poisson process), Builder model, Hvac systems, Reliability calculations, Pof (probabilistic assessment of failure), Civil infrastructure systems, Owa (ordered weighted averaging), Two-way contingency analysis, Fishers exact test, Or (odds ratios), Agm (availability growth modeling), Sci (system condition index)
摘要：	The United States Air Force manages its civil infrastructure resource allocation via a two-dimensional risk model consisting of the consequence of failure and reliability. Air Force civil engineers currently use the BUILDER Sustainment Management System to estimate and predict reliability at multiple levels within its civil infrastructure systems. Alley (2015) developed and validated a probabilistic model to calculate reliability at the system level. The probabilistic model was found to be a significant improvement over the currently employed BUILDER model for four major building systems (electrical, HVAC, fire protection, and electrical). This research assessed the performance and accuracy of both the probabilistic and BUILDER model, focusing primarily on HVAC systems. This research used contingency analysis to assess the performance of each model for HVAC systems at six Air Force installations. Evaluating the contingency analysis results over the range of possible reliability thresholds, it was found that both the BUILDER and probabilistic model produced inflated reliability calculations for HVAC systems. In light of these findings, this research employed a stochastic method, a Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP), in an attempt to produce accurate HVAC system reliability calculations. This effort ultimately concluded that the data did not fit a NHPP for the systems considered but posits that other stochastic process can provide more accurate reliability calculations when compared to the two models analyzed.
报告类型：	科技报告