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External Validity Test for Discrete Choice Transportation
Forecasting Models based on the Stated Choice Approach
| 题名： | External Validity Test for Discrete Choice Transportation Forecasting Models based on the Stated Choice Approach |
| 作者： | Patrick Beaton, Ph.D. and Lei Cao, Ph.D. |
| 关键词： | Forecasting method Forecasting method validity Stated Choice Approach Conditional Logit Model |
| 摘要： | A Constrained Conditional Logit Model based on the hypothesis that the existed resource constraints have significant effect on individual’s mode switching is developed. Theoretical and empirical studies reported here have supported the validity of this hypothesis. Data were collected on traveler demographics and commuter modal choice in response to parking charges at two major urban New Jersey corporate sites. Several developmental contributions and advancements are reported, including; 1. The development of the Constrained Conditional Logit Model (CCLM) which explicitly includes the resource constraint into the decision making process and then a switching probability function, therefore providing a tool for evaluating the effect of various constraints; 2. An advance on the model estimation, which not only improves the efficiency of the estimation but also provides a tool on the study of transferability of empirical models; and 3. A cross-sectional design that makes an external validity test available In the situation where researchers have no opportunity to manipulate both test and control conditions in the actual experiment. This study shows that the CCLM model can successfully forecast the mode split change associated with a parking charge imposition for the single occupancy vehicle and public transit modes. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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