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原文传递 Framework for Modeling Emergency Evacuation. Final rept.

题名：	Framework for Modeling Emergency Evacuation. Final rept.
作者：	MITCHELL, S.; RADWAN, E.; YILDIRIM, G.
关键词：	Traffic-modeling; Hurricanes-; *Emergency-evacuations.;Frameworks-; Florida-; Traffic-simulation; Research-methodology; Case-studies; Recommendations-; Tables-Data; Modeling-; Literature-reviews.
摘要：	This study investigated the relationships between a number of identifiable components that make up emergency evacuation, and how they can be integrated into a framework for modeling hurricane events. A thorough review of the literature revealed that the available computer simulation models on the market are proprietary, they are designed to simulate current conditions on existing roads and they have no capabilities to estimate network clearance time. A framework for emergency evacuation was developed and tested on a selected site in the Central Florida region (Ormond Beach, Florida). The results of runs with the INTEGRATION software using three different loading curves confirm findings of previous research. As expected, the best loading curve is the linear case. The standard loading curve has produced clearance times that fell between the linear and steep cases showing an overall network average clearance time of 17.1 hours. The standard loading curve has produced clearance times that extend beyond the 12 hour evacuation window. A comparison between the INTEGRATION and ARENA simulation model outputs clearly showed that there are statistically significant differences in the results. It is hypothesized that because of the logic that ARENA uses in moving entities in the network, the procedure used in coding origin-destination information, and the lack of interaction among different entities (car-following and lane change logics), the results obtained from this model were vastly different from the INTEGRATION model. It is safe to say that the INTEGRATION model has produced reasonable results and the developed framework can be expanded and applied to bigger urban areas.
报告类型：	科技报告