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Statistical Challenges with Modeling Motor Vehicle Crashes: Understanding the Implications of Alternative Approaches.
| 题名： | Statistical Challenges with Modeling Motor Vehicle Crashes: Understanding the Implications of Alternative Approaches. |
| 作者： | Lord-D.; Washington-S.P.; Ivan-J.N. |
| 关键词： | *Motor-vehicle-accidents; *Statistical-analysis; *Mathematical-models.;Predictions-; Probability-; Bernoulli-distribution; Poisson-equation. |
| 摘要： | There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to 'excess' zeroes frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeroes are observed-and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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