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Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System
| 题名： | Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System |
| 作者： | Roychoudhury, I. |
| 关键词： | National airspace system##Flight safety##Safety management##Real time operation##Situational awareness##Decision making##Prediction analysis techniques##Technology assessment##Aircraft accidents##Accident prevention## |
| 摘要： | As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress. |
| 总页数： | 22 |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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