详情

原文传递 Examining Crucial Demographic Trends in General Aviation.

题名：	Examining Crucial Demographic Trends in General Aviation.
作者：	Joshua D. Meyer
摘要：	America’s General Aviation sector has witnessed significant demographic shifts since the turn of the century. The number of certified, private pilots, non-fatal aircraft accidents, fatal aircraft accidents, and number of general aviation hours flown are all in decline. Meanwhile, the average age of an American private pilot has increased by several years. All of these factors indicate that the industry is in decline. This study determined – via mathematical, linear regression – that time’s relationship to the number of annual, fatal General Aviation accidents and the number of certified private pilots is negative. It also proved that the average age of the private pilot demographic is increasing, as the overall size of the demographic decreases. These findings prove ominous for a shrinking community that relies on its size to leverage the government and the public for support and recruitment. This study – however – also failed to prove strong, linear relationships between the number of General Aviation hours flown annually and the number of accidents or the number of private pilots. The data also compelled an acceptance of null hypotheses for private pilot population size in explaining fatal or non-fatal accident rates or the average age of a pilot explaining the same. These results fly in the face of conventional wisdom and disprove common knowledge within the aviation community. These results call on the FAA and General Aviation to act. If negative trends continue, the latter may not survive the coming decades. Clues as to how to address General Aviation’s decline in popularity and influence may be found in the relationship between a pilot’s average age and the shrinking demographic. Further – more detailed – assessment into the relationship between average pilot age and income or average pilot age and behavioral patterns while away from the airfield may help to explain causation.
总页数：	60
报告类型：	科技报告
发布日期：	2021