摘要: |
Following the Boeing 747 freighter airplane accident on September 3, 2010, at Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates, the Federal Aviation Administration, Transport Canada, and the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority initiated a study to assess the magnitude of the potential threat to freighter airplanes from onboard cargo fires. As part of this study, a risk model was developed to assess the likely number of U.S.-registered freighter fire accidents through the year 2020 and the average annual cost due to their occurrence. The study focused on the potential fire threat from the bulk shipment of lithium batteries (primary and secondary) because they were likely contributors to two of the freighter fire accidents that occurred on U.S.-registered airplanes. For this reason, the risk model considered the potential threat from lithium batteries separately from other cargo. This report summarizes the risk model, explains the data and algorithms used, and explains how the model may be used. Subsequent phases of this study will address cost benefit ratios for various mitigation strategies. |