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原文传递 Validation of A Simulation Environment for Future Space Traffic Management.

题名：	Validation of A Simulation Environment for Future Space Traffic Management.
作者：	Gregoire, A. C; Gunter, B. C; Borowitz, M; Newman, L. K; Hejduk, M. D; Schweiger, G. A.
摘要：	This study presents initial results of a newly developed simulation environment intended to explore and assess future Space Traffic Management (STM) scenarios. The number of new Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in near-Earth orbit is expected to increase significantly with the expected future deployment of a number of large constellations. These future scenarios involve the addition of many tens of thousands of new RSOs, making the analysis into their impact on collision risk extend beyond what traditional data-mining of present-day conjunction data can reliably predict. To address this, a robust simulation environment was developed that implements a full force-model for orbit propagation, and computes continuous all-on-all conjunction statistics for arbitrarily large catalog sizes and simulation timeframes. Collision avoidance and station-keeping maneuvers can be optionally implemented based on configurable user inputs including physical characteristics and spacecraft meta-data (e.g., commercial/government, owner country, etc.). Constellation build-out and de-orbit scenarios were also implemented and modeled based on real-data analysis. Validation of the simulation results was a critical component of the simulation development, and was done using the current catalog with comparisons against both public and internal NASA data-sets. The comparisons demonstrate that, with the appropriate settings, representative levels of conjunction rates and probabilities can be obtained, providing confidence that the simulation tool can generate meaningful outcomes for test scenarios. As an initial demonstration of the tool’s capabilities, year-long simulations with station-keeping were conducted to examine conjunction histories using both the current object catalog (5800 active satellites) and a hypothetical 60,000 object scenario involving five potential large constellations. Output metrics include the number of conjunction events, estimates of collision consequence (fragmentation), delta-V maneuver costs, and the probability of at least one collision occurring. The results highlight the potential that the simulation tool has for incorporating and running performance comparisons between, e.g., various sets of maneuver guidelines, industry norms, and definitions of risk, with the overall objective of providing actionable data to STM policy makers. The presentation will provide an overview of the simulation development and validation efforts, as well as a discussion of observations gathered from the initial simulations performed.
总页数：	19 pages