原文传递
A Dynamic Traffic Flow Forecast Model
| 题名： | A Dynamic Traffic Flow Forecast Model |
| 正文语种： | 中文 |
| 作者： | CAO Kai ZHAO Mo |
| 作者单位： | Shandong University of Technology,Zibo ity,255049 |
| 关键词： | Traffic Flow Forecast Double Exponential Smoothing Markov Chain GA/Gradient Descent Algorithm |
| 摘要： | In this paper，we propose an approach for forecasting traffic flow，which employs first a double exponential smoothing(DES)model to predict thefuture datum．Then，the DES model is used again for making a residual correction scheine．Furthermore，a Markov forecast model is adopted to construct aforecast trend adj ustment scheme．Smoothing parameters of the DES model is determined by using the genetic algorithm and the gradient descent algorithm．TheDrediction model is applied to forecasting the traffic flow of Shiji Route in ZiboCitv，the forecast resuIts of proposed model are compared with that of ARIMA． |
| 会议日期： | 20051209 |
| 会议举办地点： | 上海 |
| 会议名称： | 第一届中国智能交通年会 |
| 出版日期： | 2005-12-09 |
| 母体文献： | 第一届中国智能交通年会论文汇编 |
| 分类号： | U491.112 |
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