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原文传递 Will a Public Investment Benefit the Private Investor?: a Risk Analysis of Seaport Investment

题名：	Will a Public Investment Benefit the Private Investor?: a Risk Analysis of Seaport Investment
正文语种：	中文
作者：	Guo Zijian Wang Yugang Song Xiangqun
作者单位：	epartment of ivil Engineering, alian Univ.Of Technol., alian 116024 School of Management., alian Univ.ofTechnol., alian 116024
关键词：	风险分析蒙特卡罗模拟法公共投资投资效益港口投资投资风险
摘要：	Under the developing of economy, China begins to expand its seaport system. Now the nation's ambitions are well reflected through the recent rise of its container ports and their ability to redirect global shipping network. But as a developing country, the fiscal burden may not afford so many investments of seaport, and the government has realized that the economics boom has been achieved despite an overloaded and poor functional infrastructure. So the private investment is encouraged with the Chinese government. On the foundation of introducing the sources of risks, this paper use the Monte Carlo simulation to calculated a case-based vehicle seaport infrastructures' NPV. The characteristic of the NPV model is that we assumed the discount rate as a random quantity that equals to the LTBOR. The result of the simulation shows that the project is worth for private investor to invest. Also, we take us the compare between the NPV of the project and the NPV of the national bonds to show only in the situation that the NPV of the project is higher than that of the risk free interest rate, would a private would like to invest. Otherwise, the government should compensate the balance between the project and the risk free interest rate.
会议日期：	20050625
会议举办地点：	西安
会议名称：	第五届交通运输领域国际学术会议
出版日期：	2005-06-25
母体文献：	第五届交通运输领域国际学术会议论文集
分类号：	F552.6 F283