Transportation Safety Planning: Forecasting the Safety Impacts of Socio-Demographic Changes and Safety Investments
| 项目名称： | Transportation Safety Planning: Forecasting the Safety Impacts of Socio-Demographic Changes and Safety Investments |
| 摘要： | Analytical tools are needed to enable states and transportation authorities to effectively forecast the safety impacts of socio-demographic changes and safety investments in the transportation planning process. The tools will be applied in a multidisciplinary environment that includes stakeholders from state agencies including metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), departments of transportation (DOTs), Governors' highway safety offices (GHSOs), and departments of public safety (DPS) to name a few key stakeholders. Currently, state and metropolitan transportation planning processes are hampered by not being able to accurately forecast safety characteristics and their impacts. Projecting current crash frequencies or rates into the future is not acceptable for planning purposes because forecasts need to account for at least two independent and critical concerns: socio-demographic changes and safety countermeasure investments. Although there is a significant need to predict future safety (i.e., crashes of various types) at the planning level, there is a dearth of tools available for making such predictions, and most currently available tools are appropriate at the corridor and project levels. NCHRP Project 8-44 resulted in a forecasting tool for addressing socio-demographic changes; however, the tool does not cover a sufficient variety of forecasting conditions nor is the tool user-friendly at present. There is a need for methods and techniques for planning-level safety analysis. These methods and techniques need to be appropriate for predicting aggregate-level safety performance at the planning or traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level and higher. The primary objective of this research will be to develop safety forecasting software and accompanying guidance that independently forecasts changes in socio-demographics and safety investments (engineering and behavioral). |
| 状态： | Completed |
| 资金： | 400000.00 |
| 资助组织： | Federal Highway Administration<==>American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)<==>National Cooperative Highway Research Program |
| 项目负责人： | Niessner, Charles W |
| 执行机构： | Arizona State University, Tempe |
| 开始时间： | 20061027 |
| 实际结束时间： | 20100331 |
| 主题领域： | Highways；Planning and Forecasting；Safety and Human Factors |
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