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原文传递 Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare

题名：	Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare
责任者：	Shira Efron, Kurt Klein, Raphael S. Cohen
关键词：	Arctic Region, Global Climate Change, Infectious Diseases, Meteorology and Weather, United States Air Force, Warfare and Military Operations, Water Supply
学科分类：	交通运输规划与管理
摘要：	Climate and geography shape where and why conflicts occur. As part of an effort to characterize the future of warfare in 2030, this report assesses the implications of six key climate and geographical trends: the steady rise of global temperatures, the opening of the Arctic, sea level rise, more-frequent and more-extreme weather events, growing water scarcity, and the development of megacities. The ramifications of each trend are analyzed for how they are likely to affect security in specific areas. Implications for the U.S. Air Force are also considered. While these trends on their own are unlikely to lead to state collapse or interstate conflict, they are nonetheless threat multipliers and are likely to exacerbate existing problems and fuel instability around the world. This suggests that the U.S. military, including the Air Force, will have to deal with continued demand for counterterrorism and stability operations and with increased demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions in the years to come. These trends could also shape where and how the Air Force trains and operates as bases are affected extreme temperatures and flooding from sea level rise.
出版机构：	RAND
总页数：	103
报告类型：	咨询报告
资源类型：	科技（咨询、行业）报告
初始创建时间：	2020