详情

原文传递 Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and U.S. Bilateral Imports

题名：	Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and U.S. Bilateral Imports
责任者：	Mirza, Daniel<=>Verdier, Thierry
关键词：	Transport Security；Economic Theory and Research；International Terrorism and Counterterrorism；Country Strategy and Performance；International Economics and Trade；Free Trade；Transport；International Economics and Trade；Macroeconomics and Economic Growth；Conflict and Development
学科分类：	交通运输规划与管理
摘要：	What is the impact of terrorism on trade through higher security at the borders? The authors set up a theory which shows that the impact goes not only from terrorism to trade. Higher trade with a partner might, in turn, increase the probability of terrorism acts and make security measures more costly for total welfare. To identify the true impact of terrorism, their theory allows for a strategy to condition out the latter mechanism. The authors show in particular how past incidents perpetrated in third countries (anywhere in the world except the origin or targeted country) constitute good exogenous factors for current security measures at the borders. Their tests suggest that terrorist incidents have a small effect on U.S. imports on average, but a much higher effect for those origin countries at the top of the distribution of incidents. In addition, the level of the impact is up to three times higher when the acts result in a relatively high number of victims, the products are sensitive to shipping time, and the size of the partner is small. The authors further show how terrorism affects the number of business visas given by the United States, thereby affecting significantly U.S. imports in differentiated products. These results suggest that security to prevent terrorism does matter for trade.
出版机构：	World Bank
报告类型：	咨询报告
详细地址：	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/12/7261845/lives-substitute-livelihoods-terrorism-security-bilateral-imports-lives-substitute-livelihoods-terrorism-security-bilateral-imports
资源类型：	科技（咨询、行业）报告
初始创建时间：	2006-12
最新修改时间：	2017-12-13T14:05:03Z