详情

Flood-Frequency Analysis in the Midwest: Addressing Potential Nonstationary Annual Peak-Flow Records

项目名称：	Flood-Frequency Analysis in the Midwest: Addressing Potential Nonstationary Annual Peak-Flow Records
摘要：	The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the combined effects of multidecadal climatic persistence (including hydroclimatic shifts), gradual climate change, and land-use change on peak-flow frequency analyses in the multi-state region in the Midwest. This study is intended to provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in statewide flood-frequency updates that commonly are conducted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with state DOTs throughout the nation on an ongoing basis. This will be achieved through the following primary objectives: (1) Define spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic persistence/change affecting annual peak flows in the multi-state region. (2) Develop and apply a statistical methodology for estimating changes in peak-flow frequency distributions in the multi-state region in relation to climatic persistence/change and urbanization; the effects of rural and land-use change will only be investigated in an exploratory manner. (3) Investigate methods for addressing regional climatic persistence/change and land-use change in peak-flow frequency analysis. To the extent possible, estimates of trend-adjusted flood magnitudes for various exceedance levels (such as the 10-percent or 1-percent annual exceedance probability) will be provided for comparison to previously published estimates.
状态：	Programmed
资金：	1223200
资助组织：	Illinois Department of Transportation<==>Iowa Department of Transportation<==>Minnesota Department of Transportation<==>Missouri Department of Transportation<==>South Dakota Department of Transportation<==>Wisconsin Department of Transportation
项目负责人：	Huft, David
执行机构：	United States Geological Survey
开始时间：	20211012
主题领域：	Environment；Hydraulics and Hydrology；Planning and Forecasting；Transportation (General)