详情

Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning

项目名称：	Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning
摘要：	Traditional airport forecasting and planning are largely based on long-term trends, assume gradual and incremental change, and generally do not reflect the possibility of an unpredicted shock event. Shock events go beyond what is normally expected in a situation and are characterized by their rarity and potential for severe impacts and long-lasting consequences. These events can significantly disrupt the aviation industry and in the past have led to material structural changes throughout the industry. Anticipating the nature, timing, and scale of such events is impossible, but they are not without precedent and are very challenging to respond to. While the industry has generally adapted to these events and traffic eventually continued to grow, the impacts for many airports have been profound and long-lived. These impacts have typically included a significant change in or loss of air passenger demand and revenue, increased costs, and passenger processing requirements. Impacts have not been uniform, affecting some airports more than others. In fact, during the current COVID-19 pandemic, there have been positive outcomes such as the growth in air cargo. While this project is meant to help airports understand and address significant national or global shock events, methodologies developed for this research may be used by airports to respond to regional and local challenges as well. The objectives of this research are to produce a guidebook and methodology to help airports understand and account for potential shock events in forecasts and planning. These objectives should support the preparation of analyses to better forecast and plan for such events and support airports when reacting and recovering from them. Additionally, the guidebook should provide a discussion of the COVID-19 Pandemic including (1) how the impacts of the pandemic on airports compare to other recent, profound shock events (e.g., September 11 terrorist attacks, the Great Recession of 2007-2009); and (2) possible resultant structural changes to traffic patterns, customer demographics, business models, facility requirements, operating procedures, etc. The guidebook and the methodology should be targeted at airport operators, planners, designers, and other stakeholders involved in operations and capital planning, managing, and financing of airports.
状态：	Active
资金：	450000
资助组织：	Airport Cooperative Research Program<==>Federal Aviation Administration
项目负责人：	Griffin, Matthew J
执行机构：	InterVistas
开始时间：	20210804
预计完成日期：	20230203
主题领域：	Aviation；Planning and Forecasting；Security and Emergencies；Terminals and Facilities