详情

Projecting risk of highway flooding due to sea level rise

项目名称：	Projecting risk of highway flooding due to sea level rise
摘要：	Like most coastal U.S. states, California’s shoreline communities and ecosystems have been exposed to flooding related to sea level rise and storms, which jeopardize their persistence. In particular, shoreline transportation is both especially vulnerable in certain places to flooding and failure and, because it is part of a continuously used network with little redundancy, transfers its vulnerability to regional transportation networks. Forward-projected inundation/flooding risk is typically modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales, which are useful at regional and decadal scales, but less useful for coastal managers and flood responders. This project will improve assessment of both overall probability and short-term forecasts for specific locations in the San Francisco Bay that are vulnerable to flooding associated with sea level rise. Locations will be chosen in consultation with coastal managers (optionally may include an open-coast location). The researchers will develop probability assessment and forecasts through developing data-based, site-specific, model-independent approaches, which can be compared with and help to improve regional models of coastal flooding (e.g., CoSMoS). They will collect water level data across fine-scale arrays at fluvial-bay junctures in Sonoma and Marin Counties. One analysis will deconstruct water level records into multiple quasi-independent signals, which can be better predicted and recombined to produce probability of extreme events and also can be combined to produce short-term forecasts during a flooding event based on predicted wind, rain, and tide. Another analysis will focus on the probability of co-occurrence of fluvial and sea level flooding by resolving temporal relationships between forcing due to rain/run-off and wind/wave surges during storms. In addition, real-time data will be available to first responders at critical locations during a flooding event. This is a pilot project that could be replicated at many other vulnerable locations around the San Francisco Bay and elsewhere.
状态：	Active
资金：	141905
资助组织：	National Center for Sustainable Transportation<==>Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology<==>California Department of Transportation
项目负责人：	Iacobucci, Lauren
执行机构：	National Center for Sustainable Transportation<==>University of California, Davis
开始时间：	20200101
预计完成日期：	20211231
主题领域：	Environment；Highways；Hydraulics and Hydrology；Planning and Forecasting