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原文传递 Survival Analysis of Bus Running Time near Bus-Stop Areas

题名：	Survival Analysis of Bus Running Time near Bus-Stop Areas
正文语种：	英文
作者：	Yuan Zheng1; Bin Ran, Ph.D.2; Shanglu He, Ph.D.3; Jian Zhang, Ph.D.4
作者单位：	1Ph.D. Candidate, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban Intelligent Traffic System, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation, Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, School of Transportation, Collaborative Innovation Center for Technology and Application of Internet of Things, Joint Research Institute on Internet of Mobility, Southeast Univ. and Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, No. 2 Southeast University Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China. 2Professor, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center for Technology and Application of Internet of Things, Joint Research Institute on Internet of Mobility, Southeast Univ. and Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, No. 2 Southeast Univ. Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China. 3Lecturer, School of Automation, Nanjing Univ. of Science and Technology, No. 200 Xiaolingwei St., Nanjing, 210094, China. 4Associate Professor, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban Intelligent Traffic System, No. 2 Southeast University Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China; Associate Professor, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center for Technology and Application of Internet of Things, No. 2 Southeast University Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China; Associate Professor, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong Univ., Beijing 100044, China; Associate Professor, Joint Research Institute on Internet of Mobility, Southeast Univ. and Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, No. 2 Southeast University Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China (corresponding author).
关键词：	Bus operation; Bus running time; Influential factors; Survival model; Performance comparison.
摘要：	This study proposes a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of mixed traffic flow on bus running times (except bus dwell times) near bus-stop areas based on linear regression and survival analysis theory. Research data were collected by video cameras at four bus stops in Nanjing, China. The application of the proposed methods with field data indicated that several factors would delay bus running times, i.e., car and nonmotor volume, bus dwell time, bus berth without violation, and nonmotor violations. In addition, the effect of bus lanechanging behavior on bus running times varied from section to section. Moreover, linear and parametric survival models were also developed to estimate bus running times, and both models can capture the effect of factors. The parametric survival models have better fitness performance than the linear models. However, the predictive performance of the two models are distinct at different sections and bus stops. The findings of influential factors and the proposed models could be considered in advanced bus information systems.
出版年：	2019
期刊名称：	Journal of Transportation Engineering
卷：	145
期：	4
页码：	1-10