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New Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog
| 题名： | New Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | Mohammad Keshtpoor, Ph.D.1; Iacopo Carnacina, Ph.D.2; Richard M. Yablonsky, Ph.D.3 |
| 作者单位： | 1Principal Climate Risk Modeler, Katrisk LLC, 2397 Shattuck Ave., Berkeley, CA 94704; formerly, Scientist, AIR Worldwide, 131 Dartmouth St., Boston, MA 02116 (corresponding author). 2Senior Lecturer, Liverpool John Moores Univ., Byrom St., Liverpool L3 3AF, UK. 3Senior Scientist, AIR Worldwide, 131 Dartmouth St., Boston, MA 02116. |
| 关键词： | storm；simulation；flood；statistical；cyclone；selectin；cata；hast；filter；exceed |
| 摘要： | Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are major storm, flood-producing events along the northwest European coastline. To evaluate the storm surge risk covering a return period over as many as 10,000 years (0.01% annual exceedance probability) in this region, a stochastic catalog was developed by perturbing historical European ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surges generated with an entire 10,000-year stochastic catalog; however, is computationally expensive. Also, not all the stochastic ETC events are floodproducing storms. We propose an efficient statistical approach to filter the stochastic catalog by estimating the storm-surge elevation and total water level at tide gauges and then selecting only the nonnegligible flood-producing coastal events. The proposed approach reduces the number of stochastic storms that need to be numerically simulated by 78%, thereby saving computational resources for high-resolution numerical simulations of flood-producing storms. |
| 出版年： | 2019 |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering |
| 卷： | 145 |
| 期： | 3 |
| 页码： | 1-13 |
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