详情

原文传递 Infrastructure in Conflict-Prone and Fragile Environments

题名：	Infrastructure in Conflict-Prone and Fragile Environments
责任者：	Ali, Rubaba<=>Barra, A. Federico<=>Berg, Claudia N.<=>Damania, Richard<=>Nash, John D.<=>Russ, Jason<=>Russ, Jason
关键词：	Conflict and Development；Post Conflict Reconstruction；Conflict and Development；Armed Conflict；Transport Economics Policy Planning；Transport；Macroeconomics and Economic Growth；Economic Theory & Research；Poverty Reduction；Rural Poverty Reduction
学科分类：	交通运输规划与管理
摘要：	In conflict-prone situations, access to markets is necessary to restore economic growth and generate the preconditions for peace and reconstruction. Hence, the rehabilitation of damaged transport infrastructure has emerged as an overarching investment priority among donors and governments. This paper brings together two distinct strands of literature on the effects of conflict on welfare and on the economic impact of transport infrastructure. The theoretical model explores how transport infrastructure affects conflict incidence and welfare when selection into rebel groups is endogenous. The implications of the model are tested with data from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The analysis addresses the problems of the endogeneity of transport costs and conflict using a novel set of instrumental variables. For transport costs, a new instrument is developed, the natural-historical path, which measures the most efficient travel route to a market, taking into account topography, land cover, and historical caravan routes. Recognizing the imprecision in measuring the geographic impacts of conflict, the analysis develops a spatial kernel density function to proxy for the incidence of conflict. To account for its endogeneity, it is instrumented with ethnic fractionalization and distance to the eastern border. A variety of indicators of well-being are used: a wealth index, a poverty index, and local gross domestic product. The results suggest that, in most situations, reducing transport costs has the expected beneficial impacts on all the measures of welfare. However, when there is intense conflict, improvements in infrastructure may not have the anticipated benefits. The results suggest the need for more nuanced strategies that take into account varying circumstances and consider actions that jointly target governance with construction activities.
出版机构：	World Bank
报告类型：	咨询报告
详细地址：	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/05/24498122/infrastructure-conflict-prone-fragile-environments-evidence-democratic-republic-congo
资源类型：	科技（咨询、行业）报告
初始创建时间：	2015-05
最新修改时间：	2017-12-13T09:00:45Z