摘要: |
The applicability of the HDM-III performance models for predicting local observed deterioration was evaluated so that the timing, type, and cost of maintenance needs could be estimated and a balanced expenditure program developed for South African national roads. The validation procedure and the assessment methodologies used in the calibration of the environmental influences and the cracking, rutting, and roughness models are presented. For the HDM-III performance models evaluated, calibration values of less than one were obtained--except for rutting--indicating, in general, better performance on South African national roads than predicted. Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that after calibration the HDM-III performance models are capable of accurately predicting the observed deterioration on South African national roads, and it is recommended that these models be considered for incorporation into a balanced expenditure program for the national road network of South Africa. |