详情

原文传递 AUTOMOBILE PATTERNS OF DIFFUSION IN FOUR URBAN AREAS: COMPARISON OF DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.

题名：	AUTOMOBILE PATTERNS OF DIFFUSION IN FOUR URBAN AREAS: COMPARISON OF DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
作者：	Strambi-O; Hubert-J-P; Bussiere-Y; van-de-Bilt-K-A
关键词：	Age-; Age-groups; Automobile-ownership; Comparison-; Demographics-; Developed-countries; Developing-countries; Income-; Mathematical-models; Montreal-Canada; Paris-France; Puebla-Mexico; Sao-Paulo-Brazil; Urban-areas
摘要：	A comparison is presented of the diffusion of the automobile in the metropolitan areas of Paris and Montreal and in two urban areas in developing countries--Sao Paulo, Brazil, and Puebla, Mexico. The comparison uses a demographic approach, based on the estimation of an age-cohort model. The model takes into account three combined aspects of time: the stage in the life cycle, the generation, and the period. Previous analyses conducted for developed countries indicated that the period effect (including the influence of income) could be considered as residual, in the face of stability of behavior of generations during the observed part of their life cycles. Models for the regions were estimated by using a series of transportation surveys (with the exception of Puebla). The results indicate that comparable patterns can be observed with respect to the life cycle and generation effects, although the ages and generations at which maximum motorization occurs vary among countries, according to their different histories of diffusion of the automobile. On the other hand, the spatial pattern of household motorization presents some fundamental differences for the urban areas of developed and developing countries. Paris and Montreal have higher motorization in the suburbs, but the results for Sao Paulo and Puebla show the opposite, suggesting the relevance of income effects because the populations in suburban areas have lower income levels.
总页数：	Transportation Research Record. 2000. (1719) pp54-60 (4 Fig., 2 Tab., 20 Ref.)
报告类型：	科技报告