摘要: |
Bridge management systems (BMSs) are useful tools for highway agencies' projection of the future condition of bridges to identify repair and maintenance needs at the network level. However, when a BMS is first implemented, no historical data on the condition of bridges are available for developing prediction models. A study was conducted by Wilbur Smith Associates and sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration to develop a methodology for highway agencies to predict the condition of concrete bridge decks at the network level for use in the Pontis BMS (or similar systems) when historical condition data are unavailable. The methodology was developed in a step-by-step format so that matrices can be constructed to determine the probability of transitioning bridge decks from one condition state to another in 1 year. These matrices can readily be used by highway agencies to predict the percentage of network bridge decks in each Pontis condition state for any future given year. In developing the methodology, it was recognized that corrosion of the reinforcing steel is the main cause of deterioration of concrete bridge decks in the United States. Prediction of the condition of bridge decks was possible by taking into account the severity of the corrosive environment, the permeability of concrete, and the concrete cover thickness. To construct the transition probability matrices for highway agencies, bridge decks were divided into groups with three levels of deicing salt exposure, three levels of specified water-cement ratio, and three levels of bar cover depth. By combining these bridge deck groups, 27 categories of decks were identified for the majority of U.S. highway bridge decks. Bridge decks in the same category share the same deicer exposure, specified water-cement ratio, and cover depth. Accordingly 27 transition probability matrices were developed to predict the performance of decks in each category. |