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原文传递 CHOICE MODELING AS A TOOL FOR ASSESSING THE MARKET FOR TRAVELER SERVICES.

题名：	CHOICE MODELING AS A TOOL FOR ASSESSING THE MARKET FOR TRAVELER SERVICES.
作者：	Reed-Thomas-B; Underwood-Steven-E
关键词：	FAST-TRAC-Program-:-Michigan; advanced-traveler-information-systems; consumer-behavior; motorist-aid-systems
摘要：	This paper introduces choice modeling methodology and illustrates it by describing its application in a study of traveler services as part of the FAST-TRAC (Faster and Safer Travel through Traffic Routing and Advanced Controls) Operational Test in Oakland County, Michigan. The illustration from the FAST-TRAC study also contains a brief analysis of the data collected and provides some perspective on applying the resulting choice model. Choice modeling is a stated-preference approach in which respondents are asked to choose among differentially priced (potential or actual) implementations of a product or service. The choice data obtained are used to develop a "choice model", which describes the likelihood that respondents would purchase the "market packages" that they were exposed too. Of even greater interest, the model can similarly be used to estimate market demand for market packages that were not tested but that can be described by the attributes used to define the original market packages. Decision makers can use the choice model, combined with production and marketing cost data, to guide the development and marketing of products or services. The choice modeling technique can be of significant value in assessing the market for traveler services such as being developed in the field of Intelligent Transportation Systems. The objective of the FAST-TRAC choice study was to elicit quantitative data to describe traveler preferences regarding three classes of traveler services: traffic reports, route advice, and (advanced) emergency roadside assistance. The choice modeling study objective was pursued by presenting people (using a questionnaire ) with a series of carefully selected, differentially priced (potential or actual) "market packages" of the three traveler services and asking them to respond to each, i.e., to state their preference by saying whether or not they would buy the market package if it were available to them. Logistic regression was then applied to the data to develop a series of equations describing the probability that consumers will choose a market package composed of various implementations of the route advice, traffic reports, and emergency assistance "traveler services" and price. The effects identified in the FAST-TRAC illustration are intuitively reasonable: The probability of choosing a traveler service is inversely and strongly related to price. The effect of having a monthly fee is large and negative, even for a fee of $5 per month. Respondents want "Customized traffic reports on demand". Respondents state a strong desire for "Emergency roadside assistance". Subjects desire dynamic route advice and value it almost as much as emergency assistance.
总页数：	ITS America. Meeting (8th : 1998 : Detroit, Mich.). Transportation technology for tomorrow : conference proceedings. 1998. pp17
报告类型：	科技报告