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Tax provisions in the transport sector. Vol. 2. Modelling demand response. The case of car choice
| 题名： | Tax provisions in the transport sector. Vol. 2. Modelling demand response. The case of car choice |
| 关键词： | Automobiles; Denmark; Energy Consumption; Taxes; Investment; Quality Control; Retail Prices; Statistical Data; Supply and Demand; Transportation Sector; Tables(data) |
| 摘要： | The energy consumption and environmental effects of the use of passenger cars is the result of numerous interactions. One of these interactions is the subject of this report, namely the influence of taxes on the composition of the sale of new cars. It has been chosen to apply a so called nested logit model. The report will show that it is possible to estimate successfully such model on cross country car sales data. A high degree of statistical significance has been obtained and parameters have the expected sign and, generally, the expected relative magnitude. It is remarkable that the parameter estimates were very stable and increased in significance as the data from other countries were added to the model. The cost of a car was divided into three components: investment cost, fixed yearly cost and variable kilometer cost. The main conclusion from the model is that variable costs matter more for the choice of car than do investment costs. Thus, given the level of car sales, variable costs is the main determinant of the composition. Of course, investment costs are important for determining the level of car sales. The model shows that a price increase on a particular car increases the sale of other cars of the same class more than twice as much as it increases the sale of cars in other classes. This means that an increase in, say, the price of petrol implies a shift of car sales in each class to the more energy efficient cars, while the shift between classes to the smaller cars is much less pronounced. The car choice model is a tool for (partially) analysing consumer responses to price changes. In the report, some examples are given in the form of four scenarios. (EG) |
| 总页数： | 59p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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