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Road Weather Forecast Quality Analysis.
| 题名： | Road Weather Forecast Quality Analysis. |
| 作者： | landman, e. d. dissanayake, s. knapp, m. he, w. |
| 关键词： | weather forcasting, data analysis, thermal sensors, literature review, wind direction, wind speed, data requirements, recommendations, procedures |
| 摘要： | It is just as important to keep the highways functioning in a safe and efficient manner as it is to construct them in the first place. Our economy is built around an efficient transportation system. Winter weather plays an important role in highway operations, and accurate weather forecasts help the maintenance forces plan for weather events. The purpose of this research is to enhance the use of KDOTs Roadway Weather Information System by improving the weather forecasts themselves and raising the level of confidence in these forecasts. Monitoring of the forecasts is necessary to assure that their accuracy meets the expectations of the agency. However, to properly evaluate the forecast quality, accurate sensor data from the monitoring stations are essential. The researchers found that at least some of the wind direction and moisture sensors at the RWIS sites were malfunctioning. Because of the limitations of having just one year of storm events, a statistically reliable statement could not be made about ranking the three vendors. However, it was observed that there was a tendency to over-predict certain conditions. The storage and retrieval system limited the ability to evaluate the prediction of the timing and occurrence of storm events. Opinions by field personnel on the formats of the forecasts varied but were generally very favorable toward SSI. Some metrics that were identified to be key elements to evaluate forecast accuracy prior to the study and later confirmed during interviews with field personnel were not archived or the sensors were providing erroneous ground truth. Based on field observations, the temperature sensors were reporting very accurately at and around the freezing point. This report contains analysis that substantiates the problems with the data, analysis of the available data to compare the forecasts of the vendors and recommendations of procedures for monitoring sensor performance, data storage and retrieval, and items to consider in contract negotiations. / NOTE: Final rept. Jul 03-Aug 05. / Supplementary Notes: Sponsored by Kansas Dept. of Transportation, Topeka. Bureau of Materials and Research. / Availability Note: Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA, 22161, USA. |
| 总页数： | u0709；72p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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