原文传递
On the Water: Hurricane uncertainty
| 题名： | On the Water: Hurricane uncertainty |
| 正文语种： | eng |
| 作者： | Joel Milton |
| 摘要： | The graphical presentation of the National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has specific meaning. "The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a five-year sample fall within the circle." That is the official definition from the Hurricane Center, and it means two things: that the circles themselves are variables and that it accounts for only two-thirds of the track errors, not all of them. That small circle showing the position of the cyclone's center at the time of the forecast (labeled S, H or M to indicate strength) is the only part of the graphic that isn't an estimate. Everything else about it is simply the best educated guess to be made with the always incomplete and constantly changing data. To fully grasp the size of the area that might be affected by tropical storm force winds you would need to have another asymmetrical circle shape of accurate scale that equals that wind field and, using it's center, trace around the perimeter of the cone of uncertainty. |
| 出版年： | 2021 |
| 期刊名称： | Work Boat |
| 卷： | 78 |
| 期： | 8 |
检索历史
应用推荐
