摘要: |
The story goes that a US tourist walking through Dublin stopped a local and asked, "How do I get to Trinity College?" and the wag answered, "Well, first of all, I wouldn't start from here!" This was no doubt an irritating advice, if it ever happened, but perhaps it would be good advice for the shipping industry in these times. As we aim for zero-carbon emissions and struggle with powering our modern monstrous ships from one huge remote deep port to another huge remote deep port, we might like to think about why we ship like this? The economy of scale associated with bigger ships is so ingrained in shipping that it is often not questioned or its wider consequences analyzed. The economy of scale is dependent on the cost of hydrocarbons. Globalized trade is based on markets being unified through the willing buyer's price exceeding the willing seller's price by more than the cost of transport. This opening of the arbitrage establishes the trade lane and creates the world of trade as we know it. However, the cost of hydrocarbons has been subsidized throughout their use because the environmental damage of their extraction, refining, and consumption has not been counted properly, or at all! They have always been too cheap! Bigger ships had another damaging feature; as they got bigger, the ports to accommodate them had to be rebuilt further out from the cities that had been built around the older smaller ports, which we are so desperate to revive as heritage harbors, or city center attractions today. As the ships moved away from the cities, so did the seafarers, in fact, today most people in the West hardly know that shipping is the mode of transport that has globalized the world markets. |