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Pavement Forecasting Models.
| 题名： | Pavement Forecasting Models. |
| 作者： | chou, e. y. pulugurta, h. datta, d. |
| 关键词： | highway maintenance, management planning and control, construction, road materials, rehabilitation, markov process, regression analysis, performance evaluation, models, research and development, ohio |
| 摘要： | The primary objectives of this study were to develop models to forecast future pavement conditions and to determine remaining service life of pavements based on the forecasted conditions. Based on available data in the ODOT pavement database, which contains the condition history of each pavement section, along with its location, year of construction, thickness, materials used, climate, and rehabilitation records, individual regression, family regression, and Markov probabilistic models were developed. For the latter two models, pavements were first grouped into 'families' with similar characteristics, based on pavement type, priority, District location, and past performance. Forecasting models were then developed for each such 'family.' The developed models were evaluated by comparing the predicted conditions with the actual observed conditions for the five year period between 2001 and 2005. The Markov model was found to have the highest overall prediction accuracy among all the models evaluated, and it can also predict future distresses in addition to the PCR values. As a result of this study, ODOT can forecast future pavement conditions and estimate the remaining service life of pavements. Future rehabilitation needs can also determined. Such capabilities will significantly benefit planning and management decision-makings at both project and network levels. / NOTE: Final rept. / Supplementary Notes: Sponsored by Ohio Dept. of Transportation, Columbus., Federal Highway Administration, Columbus, OH. Ohio Div. and Department of Transportation, Washington, DC. / Availability Note: Product reproduced from digital image. Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA, 22161, USA. |
| 总页数： | u0818；214p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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