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An econophysics approach to forecast bulk shipbuilding orderbook: an application of Newton's law of gravitation (Part 1)
| 题名： | An econophysics approach to forecast bulk shipbuilding orderbook: an application of Newton's law of gravitation (Part 1) |
| 正文语种： | eng |
| 作者： | Quazi Mohammed Habibus Sakalayen;Okan Duru;Enna Hirata; |
| 作者单位： | School of Business and Economics, Universiti Brunei Darussalam Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore;Center for Mathematical and Data Sciences, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan; |
| 关键词： | Shipbuilding; ARIMA; Bulk carriers; Econophysics approach; Newbuilding order forecasting; Newton's law of gravitation |
| 摘要： | Purpose - Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting. Design/methodology/approach - By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit. Findings - The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model. Originality/value - By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertaintyprone environment. |
| 期刊名称： | 航贸周刊 |
| 出版年： | 2021 |
| 期： | 03 |
| 页码： | 42-56 |
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