摘要: |
Conventional wisdom suggests that a large-scale shift from gasoline to diesel light-duty highway vehicles would have an impact on energy consumption, emissions and infrastructure. Under a relatively modest scenario, based upon French experience since 1970, a dieselization strategy could have displaced slightly more than half a quad of petroleum (3.7%of the energy consumed by light-duty vehicles) in 1992, while reducing CO, HC and NO{sub x} emissions by 6.3, 0.8 and 0.09 million tonnes, and increasing SO{sub x} and PM10 by 0.03 and 0.2 million tonnes, respectively. This displacement would have been achieved using diesel technology which is significantly less efficient than what is currently available and what may become available as a result of current research. Energy consumed in refining would also have been marginally reduced, although additional processing could have been required to increase the fraction of distillate and decrease that of gasoline. Finally, a shift to diesel could have broad implications on US and world oil markets, modifying crude oil supply-demand balances, and requiring a different mix of unit operations in domestic refineries which, in turn, could change the capital investment path of the industry which is currently geared to maximizing gasoline production. This analysis used the Integrated Market Penetration and Anticipated Cost of Transportation Technologies (IMPACTT) model and EPA`s Mobile5a model. Petroleum displacement resulted from the increased thermal efficiency of diesel engines less that portion of gasoline comprised of non-petroleum-based additives for octane enhancement and/or oxygenation as mandated by law or regulation. Emissions reductions resulted from a combination of lower EPA-test emission factors for current-technology diesel engines, much slower in-use degradation of diesel as compared with gasoline vehicles, and relatively better emissions by older diesels as compared to older gasoline vehicles. |