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Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5
| 题名： | Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5 |
| 作者： | Sicherman, A.; |
| 关键词： | 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; ROADS; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; AUTOMATION; ECONOMICS; CAPITALIZED COST; RISK ASSESSMENT |
| 摘要： | This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices. |
| 总页数： | 51p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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