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North Carolina Forecasts for Truck Traffic.
| 题名： | North Carolina Forecasts for Truck Traffic. |
| 作者： | J. R. Stone; Y. Han; R. Ramkumar; |
| 关键词： | truck traffic,traffic forecasts;highway design, pavement design, traffic counts, recommendations;dual axle truck, tractor trailer trucks |
| 摘要： | North Carolina has experienced significant increases in truck traffic on many of its highways. Yet, current NCDOT project-level highway traffic forecasts do not appropriately capture anticipated truck traffic growth. NCDOT methods forecast total traffic AADT based on historical trends and assume base year and future year truck percentages are the same. Also, NCDOT determines the growth factor of historical AADT traffic data by looking only at the first year and the last year ignoring intermediate year traffic data. This research recommends that traffic for dual axle (Dual) trucks and tractor trailer (TTST) trucks be separately forecast using an average growth factor (AGF) method that uses all available data and calculates growth factors year by year and averages them for the historical trend. The results of this research propose statistical methods to separately estimate growth factors for light vehicles (Cars), Duals and TTSTs. In this study Cars represent FHWA vehicle classes 1-3, Duals 4-7 and TTSTs 8-13. The methods have modest data requirements based on NCDOT traffic counts and VTRIS on-line traffic data. Statistical guidelines including mean AGFs and confidence intervals to help refine the estimates for growth factors by vehicle class and highway type. Case study examples demonstrate the methods and guidelines for Interstate, US, and NC highways. Other issues are explored including the effects of increased truck traffic on highway level of service and pavement design. / Title Note: Final rept. / Supplementary Notes: Sponsored by North Carolina Dept. of Transportation, Raleigh. Research and Analysis Group. and Federal Highway Administration, Raleigh, NC. North Carolina Div. / Availability Note: Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5301 Shawnee Road, Alexandria, VA, 22312, USA. / NTIS Prices: PC A10 / NTIS In-house Control Codes: dotour/dotfha;12091,1101 |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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