摘要: |
This work is intended to better quantify sources of uncertainty and variability in selected Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models that are being used to regulate fuels by conducting an in-depth evaluation of model inputs, and the uncertainties around those inputs for several specific fuel pathways. Validation of the inputs and resulting outputs from the models is discussed, pathway variability and overall model uncertainty for the different pathways is assessed. There are dozens of LCA models that have been used to analyze transportation fuels in the past decade. However, four models are being used in various regulatory schemes around the world and these four models are the focus of this work. This work analyzed four LCA models and six fuel pathways. The four LCA models are: (1) BioGrace, used in the European Union (EU) Renewable Energy Directive (RED) program. (2) The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) modeling framework for RFS2. The EPA used a series of models to determine the direct and indirect emissions of renewable fuels and petroleum fuels. Not all of the models are publicly available but there is a significant amount of information available on the model inputs for many of the pathways. (3) The GREET model and the variant of the model used in California for the California LCFS program. (4) GHGenius, used in the British Columbia LCFS program and the Alberta RFS program. |