原文传递
Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents.
| 题名： | Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents. |
| 作者： | G., Mcdonald; J., Bronsvoort; L., Stell |
| 关键词： | Air Traffic Control; Aircraft Approach Spacing; Australia; Descent; Descent Trajectories; Flight Management Systems; Flight Mechanics; Flight Optimization; Flight Paths; Mathematical Models; Regressio |
| 摘要： | In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
相关文献
- Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents
- Flight Management System Execution of Idle-Thrust Descents in Operations.
- Predictability of Top of Descent Location for Operational Idle-Thrust Descents
- Effect of lead-aircraft ground-speed on self-spacing performance using a cockpit display of traffic information
- Preliminary test results of a flight management algorithm for fuel conservative descents in a time based metered traffic environment
- Concept for Airborne Precision Spacing for Dependent Parallel Approaches.
检索历史
应用推荐
