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RATIONALIZATION OF SECONDARY DATA AND TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR STATE HIGHWAY NETWORK OF WEST BENGAL
| 题名： | RATIONALIZATION OF SECONDARY DATA AND TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR STATE HIGHWAY NETWORK OF WEST BENGAL |
| 正文语种： | eng |
| 作者： | SUDIPTA PAL;JAHAR RAJAN SARKAR |
| 作者单位： | RITES Ltd.;Ranbir and Chitra Gupta School of Infrastructure Design and Management IIT Kharagpur West Bengal |
| 摘要： | Knowledge of future traffic volume is an essential input in the planning and development of a transportation system. The importance of Travel Demand Forecasting (TDF) has increased significantly as the forecasted traffic volume contributes substantially in engineering design and in assessing viability for PPP models which is the recent trend in India. Estimation of traffic growth rates and the related issues is of prime importance to improve the rationality of traffic forecast. A few standard methods are available for forecasting traffic for a homogeneous road section with more or less consistent data. However, traffic forecasting for a State Highway network which is spread over a large area with varying socio-economic profile and traffic pattern with minimal statistical information is really a challenging task. In developing countries like India with fluctuating economy, unavailability of past traffic data and inconsistent secondary data make the traffic forecasting process extremely painstaking and tricky. Present paper demonstrates a methodology adopted for estimating growth factors and forecasting traffic for entire state highway network of the State of West Bengal, India, after rationalization of secondary data. Direct linear model and indirect linear model along with econometric models were used to estimate district wise growth factors. Influence area and OD trip count were considered for estimating Combined Weighted Average Growth Rates (CWAGR) for SH sections. Steps followed in rationalization of inconsistent secondary data obtained from various sources to derive logical growth factors for various vehicle categories and finally travel demand forecasting for SH sections discussed in details in the present paper. |
| 出版年： | 2022 |
| 期刊名称： | Indian Highways |
| 卷： | 50 |
| 期： | 10 |
| 页码： | 34-45 |
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