摘要: |
This paper presents a brief history of the development of traffic simulation from the 1950s to the present time, largely from an autobiographical perspective. Since I participated in some of the early developments and had personal exposure to those pioneers who preceded me, I am hopeful that this perspective can provide insights that a chronological literature survey, alone, could not provide. General-purpose digital computers became available in 1952. A small number of researchers at universities which had access to these early computers became interested in simulation technology and developed software applied to individual intersections and short freeway sections. Other researchers recognized the need to represent traffic flow in analytical terms and developed formulations which could be utilized by simulation modelers. In the 1960s and 1970s, as computers became more plentiful and of greater power, FHWA, NCHRP, and other national research agencies, supported the development of useful network simulation models. As a result, the technology’s value in the field of traffic operations and control became apparent to an increasing number of practitioners. In the 1980s, simulation models that integrated traffic operations with traffic assignment were introduced; these attracted transportation planners who were seeking more effective, equilibrium-based tools. The continuing development of personal computer (PC) technology has fostered the development of regional simulation-based multimode models which are now routinely applied by practitioners worldwide. The pressing need to manage transportation systems to be increasingly productive and efficient in an environment of increasing demand will require simulation-based tools well into the future. |