摘要: |
Measuring greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other emissions (especially diesel particulates) is an increasingly important basis for regional policy analysis. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2010), the transportation sector contributed 27.2 percent of total GHG emissions in 2008, and 50 percent of these were from truck operations. This research focuses on measuring GHGs and other emissions (e.g. PM) from freight movements on highways in California (a prototypical example because of its leadership in air quality policy making). The research also takes into account concurrent economic effects of various regulation scenarios. In this way, questions related to sustainability, environmental policy, and efficiency in freight transportation are addressed. The research will build the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF), an important commodity origin-destination database that provides information on interregional freight movements throughout the U.S. for 2002-2035. These data will be used to estimate the economic and environmental consequences of various regulatory and economic scenarios by applying TransNIEMO, an internally developed interregional trade model that involves an interregional economic trade equilibrium that is consistent with a highway network equilibrium. The estimate of vehicle miles traveled (VMT), in turn, will be used as inputs to the EMFAC2007 model to estimate GHGs and other emissions. It will be demonstrated that TransNIEMO can be an important bridge between the FAF data and models like EMFAC. It is expected that many of the other states will follow California's lead in developing and using models like EMFAC. The results will be useful not only for measuring GHGs and other emissions based on estimated freight flows, but also for evaluating economic and environmental impacts of policy alternatives. |