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Mixed Models of Single-Berth Interarrival Time Distributions
| 题名： | Mixed Models of Single-Berth Interarrival Time Distributions |
| 其他题名： | Adams,W.F.(1936)."Road traffic considered as a random series."J.Inst.Civ.Eng.,4(1),121-130. |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | Yi Liu |
| 关键词： | distribution；models；statistical；simulation；proportion；single；analysis；modeling；records；bert |
| 摘要： | Modeling and analysis of the statistical patterns of vessel interarrival time is a crucial research area for port planning and is also the basis of port capacity analysis and simulation-related works using theoretical queuing methods. This study seeks to identify probabilistic models of vessel interarrival time for a single berth. Two generalized queuing models (GQMs), gamma-GQM and lognormal-GQM, were proposed and tested by a novel hybrid parameter estimation method. To test the proposed models, detailed records of vessels entering Tianjin Port between 2012 and 2014 were utilized; nine berths consisting of three types-bulk cargo, container, and crude carrier-were chosen and studied. The results of the study show that (1) single models are unsatisfactory for single-berth interarrival time modeling in most cases, whereas the proposed mixed models provide much better overall goodness of fit; (2) the statistical properties and the proportion of congested interarrival time are highly related to traffic intensity; (3) the lognormal distribution model performed the best of all tested single models, and the lognormal-GQM performed the best of all tested models. |
| 出版年： | 2018 |
| 论文唯一标识： | P-108Y2018V144N01002 |
| 英文栏目名称： | TECHNICAL PAPERS |
| doi： | 10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000421 |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering |
| 拼音刊名(出版物代码)： | P-108 |
| 卷： | 144 |
| 期： | 01 |
| 页码： | 1-11 |
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